Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Is Obama fantasizing about Montana and North Carolina?
by Charles W. Fairbanks
This summer, the Obama camp appeared to entertain fantasies about competing in some states that have been solidly Republican. The nomination of Sarah Palin as the GOP VP candidate has brought home conservatives and attracted women, thereby changing the electoral dynamic in many states such as North Carolina (pictured here). Will Obama continue to try to play in those states?
As a veteran of a few campaigns, I can say that optimism is an important trait if you are involved in a political campaign. Otherwise, every bit of bad news can be demoralizing. While optimism is a good trait, it must be tempered with realism. While the Obama campaign appears to be long on optimism, realism seems to be in short supply there.
Nowhere is that more evident than in their professed beliefs that they could compete in North Carolina and Montana. The Obama campaign has spent resources in both of those states. There is nothing objective in either case that indicates Obama will be able to win.
North Carolina’s fifteen electoral votes went to President Bush by big margins both in 2000 (+12.8%) and in 2004 (+12.4%). The Tar Heel State is a very patriotic state, so Obama’s association with Rev. Wright ("God d--- America") will not help him. The Tar Heel State is very pro-free enterprise, so a ticket that proclaims that paying higher taxes is patriotic will not do well. The Tar Heel State is home to tens of thousands of hunters. As such, Sarah Palin’s obvious appeal to sportsmen and -women will help the ticket. The Real Clear Politics average for North Carolina is McCain by nine points. The margin should stretch out to the normal double-digit lead by Election Day.
Similarly, the mountain paradise of Montana is home to sportsmen and -women. The people there are very well informed on political issues. They do not want to elect a president who - like Obama - does not respect their rights under the second Amendment or who - like Obama - considers their snowmobiles to be threats to the environment. President Bush won Montana by a margin of 25 points in 2000 and 20 points in 2004. The Real Clear Politics Average in Montana is McCain by nine points. Sarah Palin is the only VP candidate in history to know how to field dress a moose (with our apologies to TR), so her presence on the ticket will no doubt solidify Montana.
We should be vigilant in all fifty states, and make sure that our votes are cast, but barring unforseen developments, we can strike Montana and North Carolina from the list of battleground states.
